The October jobs report will arrive Friday, November 6, at 8:30 am Eastern time. Economists expect the U.S. added 59,000 new jobs in October, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh noted that the jobless rate sits lower than a year ago and payroll growth runs above last year's pace. The four-week moving average for unemployment insurance claims continues at the lowest level in generations. "On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive," Warsh said during the October Fed meeting press conference.
September painted a weaker picture. The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs, far below the consensus forecast of 93,000. Revisions to July and August also reduced job growth by a combined 60,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
The ADP National Employment Report, released Wednesday, showed private payrolls rose 86,000 in October, down from 90,000 in September but above the 75,000 economists expected. Trade, transportation and utilities; education and health services; and leisure and hospitality posted the largest job increases. Professional and business services and natural resources and mining saw the biggest declines.
David Payne, staff economist at The Kiplinger Letter, writes that "the new normal for jobs reports going forward is likely to be gains of fewer than 100,000, rather than additions in six digits."
Wall Street forecasts range from 50,000 to 95,000 jobs added in October. Deutsche Bank expects 55,000 new jobs with average hourly earnings rising 0.3%. Barclays forecasts 50,000 jobs and predicts the unemployment rate may dip to 4.1%. RSM anticipates 95,000 jobs added.