Buy now, pay later spending this holiday season is projected to reach $21.3 billion, up 6.6 percent from last year's $20 billion, according to Adobe Digital Insights' 2026 holiday forecast. That covers November 1 through December 31. The growth rate nearly matches the 6.7 percent increase in total online holiday spending, which Adobe projects at $275.1 billion for the same period.
BNPL services show up at checkout for almost any purchase, including small ones. Splitting a $200 gift into four $50 payments can feel like an impulse buy because of how the option is framed at checkout.
Most short-term BNPL plans charge no interest if you pay on time. Miss a payment, and late fees or deferred interest can apply depending on the provider. Some providers report activity to credit bureaus, so a missed payment can show up the same way a missed credit card payment would.
The risk grows when multiple BNPL plans overlap. A gift bought in late November can still have payments due in January, landing alongside rent, credit card bills, and other holiday purchases financed the same way.
Money Under 30 recommends picking one BNPL plan at a time instead of stacking several from different apps. Write down each due date the moment you approve a plan and put it on the calendar where you track rent and other fixed bills. Check your existing BNPL balances before adding a new one. Before checkout, ask whether you would still buy the item at full price today. If the answer is no, a payment plan does not make the purchase more affordable. Set a total holiday spending number before Black Friday arrives and decide separately how much of it, if any, you want to split into payments. Count BNPL payments inside that budget, not as a separate expense to cover later.