# Holiday Shoppers Bracing for Tariff-Driven Price Increases

Americans plan to spend an average of nearly $200 more on holiday gifts in 2025 compared with 2024, according to a new NerdWallet survey. The uptick signals that consumers expect higher retail prices, likely driven by tariff-related cost increases hitting supply chains.

This spending bump matters because it reflects real pressure on household budgets during the most expensive shopping season of the year. For families already stretched thin, an extra $200 in gift spending can force difficult choices between presents, savings, and other financial priorities.

The tariff concern sits at the heart of this trend. Import duties on goods from China, Vietnam, and other countries increase costs for retailers, who then pass those expenses to shoppers. Everything from electronics to clothing to toys faces potential price increases. When consumers anticipate higher prices, they often spend more than planned, either buying now before increases hit or simply absorbing the extra cost at checkout.

The NerdWallet survey captures holiday spending intentions at a critical moment. Shoppers are already making purchase decisions, and the survey results show they're resigned to spending more. This is not optimism driving higher spending. Instead, consumers view inflation or price hikes as inevitable and adjust their budgets upward accordingly.

The practical implication for shoppers is clear. If you plan to give gifts this year, budget conservatively. Consider these moves now:

Build a specific gift list with price caps per person. Avoid impulse purchases that inflate totals beyond your plan. Shop early before tariff increases fully cascade through retail channels, though evidence suggests prices have already begun climbing. Compare prices across retailers, as some have absorbed tariff costs differently than others. Consider non-gift spending alternatives like experiences, which may carry lower price tags than physical items.

For households on fixed or limited incomes, this $200 increase represents a genuine squeeze. A family planning to spend $500 on gifts now faces $700 expectations. That's a 40 percent jump. A family targeting $1,000 confronts $1,200 instead. The math gets uncomfortable fast.

Retailers are likely banking on this spending increase. Higher average purchases mean bigger sales even if customer counts remain flat. But that assumes consumers will pay up. Some shoppers will cut back in other spending categories to fund higher gift budgets. Others will trim their gift lists or reduce spending per person. A segment will carry higher credit card balances into 2026.

The NerdWallet findings also suggest consumers have already accepted tariff costs as permanent. If they expected prices to fall in early 2025, they might defer purchases. Instead, the spending plan assumes higher costs persist through the holiday season and beyond.

Track your actual spending against your target. Holiday retail environments encourage overspending. The combination of anticipated price increases and holiday marketing pressure creates a perfect storm for budget overruns. Set alerts on credit cards, use cash envelopes if that method works for you, and review purchases before checkout.

This holiday season differs from prior years. You're not just managing normal seasonal spending. You're navigating tariff-related inflation expectations that retailers have already baked into their pricing.